12 B u s i n e s s p l a n | F i s h m e a l a n d f i s h o i l p r o d u c t i o n Industr y over view CURRENT INDUSTRY SITUATION In 2015 the global supply of fishmeal and fish oil could return to the level at 5 million metric tons, and fish oil at 1m metric tons (IFFO). In 2014 fishmeal production was down 11.5% to 4.1m over 2013 (see Figure 8), while the fish oil output reached 843.000 MT, down 7.5% year-on-year. Excluding the two main producing regions -- Peru and Scandinavia -- a slight production improvement is expected this year in the rest of the world, driven by positive Atlantic menhaden quota expectations in the US and good prospects for African output (IFFO). But the situation in whole depends on Peru, the biggest fishmeal producer in the world, capable to change the landscape of the industry. Recent assessments from Peru’s marine institute, Imarpe, are interpreted as a positive sign for anchovy fishing in 2015. US, Africa to up output production for this year is expected to improve slightly over 2014 (IFFO). China is expected to have similar production as 2014, sawing output down 10% to near 440.000 MT (Index Mundi). Lower volumes are linked to overfishing and to a new policy implemented by the Chinese government to improve the quality of fishmeal (IFFO). Thailand, Vietnam and India have recently boosted their fishmeal production, and a similar output as 2014 is expected for 2015 (IFFO). MAJOR FINDINGS • Top ten manufacturers are making 80 % of the global production. • The situation in industry depends on Peru. • Global fishmeal output has reduced due to the El Niño phenomena. • El Niño decreases the competitiveness of Peru in the fishmeal market. Other countries may successfully compete with Peru. R E C A P :
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