17 B u s i n e s s p l a n | F i s h m e a l a n d f i s h o i l p r o d u c t i o n Market analysis While there is no strict definition of the three types of farms, backyard farms usually raise less than 50 pigs at one time, specialized farms raise 50 to 3,000 pigs and commercial farms raise more than 3,000 pigs in inventory. Figure 16 shows that by 2010, half of the pork were produced by specialized farms, and about 25% - of large-scale commercial farms. If we accept that big commercial farms use the efficient pig feeds and some of specialized households too, then we can assume that about 30% of the pork is produced using them. Than we use some industry standards to calculate annual feed intake by pigs in China. According to Garth Pig Stockmanship Standards, 22-week pig average weight is 110 kg and it consumes for that period about ~255 kg of feed. Rowett Research Institute argues that an inclusion of 5 to 7.5% fishmeal in the diet acts as ‘nutritional insurance’ against many pig’s diseases (Fishmeal Information Network). Relying on these data we can calculate the potential demand of the fishmeal by Chinese pork industry (see Table 5). Figure 16. Types of the pork production farms So, we can make an assessment about consumption of feeds. Table 5. Fishmeal demand by Chinese pork industry (1000 MT) R E C A P : Pork consumption in China per year (1000 MT) 57 425 Pork consumption in China per year (kg) 57 425 000 000 Avg. pig weight (kg) 110 Number of produced pigs 522 045 455 Efficient feeds use share in pork production 30% Big farm's pigs 156 613 636 Avg. meal consumption per pig (kg) 255 Fish meal share in pig meal 7% Fish meal potential demand (kg) 2 795 553 409 Fish meal potential demand (1000 MT) 2 796 China Fishmeal production (1000 MT) 450 Fishmeal import potential (1000 MT) 2 346
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